I agree in part. I think Obsidian bloomed rapidly to a certain feature set and is now probably reached its plateau. Scrivener and Ulysses replacement? No, not at all --- sort of comparing a fork to a power drill. Obsidian doesn't even offer meaningful export options and there are none on the roadmap.

OTOH, it looks like the Roam guy has been tweeting about making a Roam version that works with locally-stored files -- which was the stated motivation for Obsidian and other apps. Another market equilibrium emerging.

Luhmann wrote:

It is getting to the point where it could be a good replacement for
other general purpose note taking apps, such as FSNotes or Bear. But it
is unlikely to ever replace an outlining app like Workflowy, Dynalist,
or Roam if that is what you want. With some additional plugins and some
improvements to the editor, I could see it also taking on something like
Ulysses or Scrivener though.